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简体中文 Starting from April 2026, a notable tungsten price decline has taken hold across China’s market, ending the years-long one-sided rally that prevailed throughout 2025. The sector now features a clear divergence: domestic tungsten benchmarks trend downward, while overseas quotations remain resilient at high levels, resulting in a substantial cross-border price gap. This paper analyzes the core drivers behind the current tungsten price decline, explains the formation of domestic and international price differentials, forecasts market movements for the second half of the year, and delivers practical procurement guidance for global buyers sourcing tungsten products from China.
Current Situation and Core Drivers of China’s Tungsten Price Decline
Since April 2026, China’s domestic tungsten market has entered a sustained downward cycle. Trading activity has weakened, supply and demand remain deadlocked, and the sector is undergoing reasonable post-rally adjustment. The ongoing tungsten price decline does not stem from fundamental collapse; instead, it reflects sentiment cooling and profit taking after an extended price surge. Key contributing factors can be categorized into supply dynamics, demand changes, market sentiment and secondary scrap tungsten linkage.
Excessive Early Gains Weaken Downstream Affordability
Tungsten benchmarks maintained strong upward momentum in 2025. Tungsten alloy cutting tools surged over 3.5 times, while certain product lines jumped more than sixfold. Such sharp hikes far exceeded downstream affordability, forcing tungsten manufacturers to face mounting cost pressure and scale back active purchasing. End-users adopted a cautious wait-and-see stance, following the common market logic of purchasing only during upward cycles. Bargaining power shifted toward buyers, and prices lost firm fundamental support.
collective Selling Plunges the Market into Panic
Driven by massive accumulated gains from previous rallies, material holders and speculative capital opted for large-scale profit liquidation. Widespread discount selling triggered broad panic trading and divided seller sentiment. Meanwhile, higher import volumes, tightened export regulations and expanding scrap tungsten supplies further lifted overall market supply and accelerated the tungsten price decline.
The scrap tungsten segment led the downturn: tungsten cutting tools fell from 1,400 yuan to 900 yuan, marking a nearly 36% drop. Mass liquidation among regional stockpilers in Hebei triggered cascading sell-offs, creating a market stampede that dragged primary tungsten prices lower in tandem. On March 16, mainstream tungsten carbide spot prices dropped by 56,000 to 60,000 yuan per ton.
Weak End-User Demand
Downstream businesses remain reluctant to purchase amid falling prices, resulting in scarce new orders and minimal buying beyond rigid operational needs. Enterprises that built high-cost inventories in previous cycles continue to cut procurement budgets and push for further price reductions amid bearish expectations, steadily eroding demand-side support.
Large-scale industrial inventory stockpiles continue to tie up capital, with major holders keeping 100,000 to 200,000 units in reserve and machinery operators maintaining stockpiles of 5,000 to 10,000 units. Excess inventory adds persistent selling pressure and deepens the tungsten price decline.
Misaligned Short-Term and Long-Term Expectations Drive Volatility
From a long-term perspective, tungsten retains its value as a critical strategic mineral, with balanced global supply and persistent geopolitical risks providing solid long-term support. In the short term, however, panic selling, capital withdrawal, fragmented pricing and conflicting market outlooks have reduced market liquidity and intensified price volatility. The sector is trapped in a dual pattern: bullish long-term fundamentals contrasted with bearish short-term sentiment.
Domestic and Global Tungsten Price Comparison & Root Causes of Massive Price Gaps
Global tungsten markets now show stark segmentation. Domestic weakness and overseas strength coexist, creating an unprecedented price divide. Key price data and structural reasons are outlined below.
(1) Domestic and International Price Comparison (April 2026)
- China Domestic: Continuous tungsten price decline across primary alloy and tungsten concentrate markets, with scrap tungsten suffering sharp losses.
- Europe (Rotterdam): 3,150–3,220 USD/mtu, equivalent to 1.92–1.96 million RMB per ton.
- United States: 3,200–3,300 USD/mtu, equivalent to 1.95–2.00 million RMB per ton.
- Core Gap: International tungsten prices stand nearly 600,000 RMB per ton higher than domestic levels, forming a pronounced global price divide.
(2) Core Causes of Cross-Border Price Differentials
Domestic Oversupply vs. Global Supply Tightness
China dominates global tungsten resource output and processing capacity. Years of speculative stockpiling, rising scrap tungsten output and stringent export restrictions have created substantial domestic surplus, directly fueling the tungsten price decline. In contrast, overseas mines operate at constrained output with limited inventories. Robust demand from advanced manufacturing and defense sectors, combined with producer inventory retention, has resulted in tight global supply and sustained high overseas pricing.
Restrictive Export Policies
National controls on pure tungsten exports block low-cost Chinese supplies from entering global circulation. International buyers are forced to rely on limited local mining output, which keeps overseas prices elevated. At the same time, restricted cross-border shipments trap excess domestic inventory, exacerbating local supply pressure and deepening the tungsten price decline.
Segmented Global Pricing Mechanisms
Unlike standardized commodities such as crude oil, tungsten lacks a unified global pricing benchmark. It has gradually evolved from basic industrial raw material into a financially driven commodity with strong speculative attributes. Domestic trends are heavily influenced by inventory cycles and trading sentiment, leading to rational corrections after historic highs. Overseas markets, by contrast, are supported by strategic stockpiling and specialized industrial demand, keeping international quotations consistently high. This structural separation creates the current 600,000 RMB per ton price gap.
Mismatched Cost Structures and Demand Conditions
Production costs for tungsten alloy products in overseas regions have become increasingly competitive compared with Chinese manufacturers. International buyers regularly secure procurement offers 30% to 50% lower than local Chinese transaction prices. This imbalance weakens China’s export competitiveness, aggravates domestic oversupply, and further widens cross-border pricing differences.
Global Tungsten Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2026
China Domestic Market
Short-Term Trend (April–June 2026)
The tungsten price decline will continue at a moderate pace with range-bound fluctuations. Persistent scrap tungsten selling pressure, slow inventory digestion and cautious downstream buying will limit rapid price rebounds. Nevertheless, long-term industry confidence remains intact, and large-scale forced liquidation is unlikely. Primary tungsten prices will remain relatively stable, avoiding extreme depreciation, and will adjust within defined ranges until fresh demand recovery or supply contraction emerges.
Mid-to-Long-Term Trend (Second Half 2026)
Tungsten prices are projected to stabilize and resume an upward trend. Peak construction seasons will drive renewed industrial activity, excess scrap tungsten supply will gradually be absorbed, and downstream enterprises will restart routine inventory replenishment. Supported by tight global mineral supply, strengthened strategic resource positioning and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, domestic tungsten will return to high operating levels without prolonged depreciation.
International Market
Supply Side
Overseas mining expansion remains slow, shipment volumes are constrained, and industrial inventories stay low. China’s export control framework will remain in place, ensuring that global supply tightness cannot be quickly resolved. Material holders will continue selective inventory retention.
Demand Side
Sustained demand from defense industries, high-end manufacturing, photovoltaic manufacturing and semiconductor sectors will underpin consumption. Heightened geopolitical tensions will further boost strategic mineral stockpiling, leaving international tungsten prices inclined toward steady growth and high resilience.
Price Gap Outlook
As long as China’s export controls remain unchanged and global supply shortages persist, the substantial cross-border price gap will continue and may even expand in certain periods. No significant price convergence is expected in the short term.
IV. Strategic Procurement Advice for Global Tungsten Buyers
In view of diverging global supply and demand patterns and ongoing tungsten price decline in China, international purchasers can adopt targeted strategies to optimize costs and mitigate operational risks.
Capture Domestic Correction Cycles for Phased Procurement
Current domestic market corrections present a cost-effective procurement window for global buyers. Instead of waiting for absolute bottom prices, enterprises are advised to implement phased, small-batch purchasing plans aligned with production needs. Dispersed order placement prevents sudden price rebounds and fully capitalizes on China’s substantial cost advantages amid the ongoing tungsten price decline.
Differentiate Between Primary Tungsten and Recycled Scrap Tungsten
Virgin tungsten products feature concentrated upstream production and stable pricing, making them suitable for long-term framework orders and core component procurement. Recycled scrap tungsten carries higher price volatility and liquidation risks, and is more appropriate for auxiliary material purchasing with limited stockpiling.
Monitor Inventory Levels and Industrial Operating Cycles
Buyers should track domestic construction activity, scrap tungsten recycling volumes and inventory absorption progress to avoid high-volatility trading cycles. Close attention to export policy adjustments is essential to prevent unexpected supply chain disruptions.
Guard Against Cross-Border Commodity Circulation Risks
Cost imbalances between domestic and overseas markets may trigger reverse commodity flows. Cooperation with certified, compliant suppliers such as Meetyoucarbide® is critical to guarantee product quality, standardize sourcing channels and eliminate substandard materials.
Establish Long-Term Strategic Inventory
With international prices set to remain strong and domestic markets poised for stabilization, global enterprises can lock in long-term cost advantages through reasonable reserve building during the current tungsten price decline. Forward inventory planning balances short-term cost control and long-term supply chain stability.
