炭化タングステンの価格変動の狂乱は業界全体に広がっており、特に切削工具、採掘設備、あらゆる重機など、炭化タングステン製品から利益を得ている企業に影響が出ています。

2025年、ロンドン金属取引所（LME）におけるタングステンカーバイドの価格は、まるで火のついたマッチのように急騰しました。これは世界のサプライチェーンに連鎖反応を引き起こすだけでなく、企業に資源戦略の抜本的な見直しを迫っています。本稿では、最新の市場データと業界動向を組み合わせ、この重要な時期に、この重要な産業材料が直面する原因、影響、そして将来の解決策について、詳細な分析を行います。

At the beginning of 2025, the benchmark price of tungsten was still stable at approximately $300 per 10 kilograms. Within just a few months, the relevant quotation on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has soared to $535 – $550 per 10 kilograms, and the Chinese offshore price has even reached a high level of $580 – $600 per 10 kilograms. As the core intermediate in the industrial chain, ammonium paratungstate (APT) has seen a price increase of 80% – 95% since the beginning of the year.

Tungsten concentrate, the foundation of the supply chain, has not only witnessed a year-on-year price increase of over 30% but also nearly doubled compared with the beginning of the year, reaching about $500 per 10 kilograms. The quotation in the European market has also been pushed to the range of $420 – $435 per 10 kilograms.

This cost pressure is spreading layer by layer along the industrial chain: from tungsten powder to sintered tungsten carbide components, the price of each link has increased simultaneously. For manufacturers and end-users, the tungsten price  has nearly doubled in a very short period, putting many enterprises that rely on fixed-price contracts in a dilemma of “losing money on every order”, and their operating profit margins have suffered a devastating blow.

Multiple interrelated and powerful factors have intertwined to form this “perfect storm” in the tungsten market, whose intensity far exceeds any previous price fluctuation.

China’s leading position in the field of tungsten resources is irreplaceable. In 2023, China’s tungsten output was approximately 63,000 tons, accounting for 81% of the global total; in 2024, the output rose to 67,000 tons, and its share still exceeded 80%.

This pattern of “dominance by one country” already hides risks, and the geopolitical games in 2025 have completely triggered them. In the first quarter of 2025, China reduced the tungsten ore quota by approximately 6.5%. Combined with the closure of backward production capacity due to environmental protection rectification, the growth rate of domestic output has slowed down significantly.

しかし、世界の他の地域の生産能力は、そのギャップを全く埋めることができていません。オーストラリアは豊富な埋蔵量を有するものの、稼働中の鉱山は少なく、ポルトガルのパナスケイラ鉱山は2022年の生産量がわずか500トンにとどまり、20年間の稼働延長計画をもってしても当面の問題は解決できません。ベトナムのヌイパオ鉱山は2024年に生産量が15%減少し、鉱石品位も低下し続けています。ロシアのティルニャウズ鉱山などの超大型鉱山は、西側諸国の制裁により正常な取引が困難になっており、サプライチェーンの厳格な制約はピークに達しています。

2024年9月、米国通商代表部は、タングステン精鉱、酸化タングステン、炭化タングステンなどの中国製品に対する関税引き上げ案25%を発表し、2025年1月1日に正式に発効しました。これを受けて、中国商務省と税関総署は2025年2月4日に共同で発表を行い、タングステン化合物を輸出管理リストに含め、すべての輸出に許可証を義務付けました。

同年4月、トランプ政権は対中関税を34%から84TP3Tに引き上げました。中国は直ちに報復措置として、対米関税を125%に引き上げ、タングステンの輸出を禁止しました。一連の政策の組み合わせにより、従来の貿易関係は直接的に断絶され、国際市場は突如として供給不足に陥りました。

需要側の継続的な拡大は、需給のアンバランスをさらに悪化させています。比類のない硬度、耐摩耗性、耐高温性により、炭化タングステンは多くの分野で不可欠な存在であり、その需要は伝統的な産業から新興技術分野まで浸透しています。

The manufacturing and metal processing industries consume over 10 billion tungsten carbide cutting tools annually; in the drill bits of the mining industry, the proportion of tungsten carbide wear-resistant components reaches more than 70%. The oil and gas industry is also a key demand side – modern polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) drill bits rely on tungsten carbide substrates, and each deep well requires dozens of kilograms of tungsten carbide for drill bit consumption.

In the military field, the tungsten content in modern armor-piercing bullets is as high as 90% – 98%. Its density and hardness make it the core material of anti-tank weapons. The ammunition shortage crisis on the Ukrainian front has already sounded the alarm for this: European factories are operating at full capacity to produce artillery shells, but the production capacity has been halved due to the shortage of tungsten carbide alloy bars.

After German engineers were forced to reduce the tungsten content, the penetration of armor-piercing bullets decreased and their service life was shortened, and the test reports were rejected many times. NATO senior officials have to postpone the delivery date of new contracts by three years, and the EU’s commitment to support one million artillery shells cannot be fulfilled at all.

電気自動車のバッテリータブの切断、太陽光発電用シリコンウエハの精密加工、半導体の配線工程など、炭化タングステン工具への要求はますます高まっています。2025年には、世界の電気自動車販売台数は4,000万台を超え、太陽光発電設備の設置容量は前年比30%増加すると予想されています。これらはすべて炭化タングステンに対する需要の硬直化につながっています。供給の急激な減少と需要の急増が衝突し、炭化タングステン価格の高騰は避けられないものとなっています。

The raw material cost of tungsten carbide tool manufacturers has nearly doubled, and they are facing a “dilemma”: if they absorb the cost by themselves, the profit margin will drop sharply from 15% to less than 3%, or even fall into losses; if they pass on the cost, the risk of customer loss will increase sharply. Sandvik, one of the world’s largest tungsten carbide manufacturers, has announced that the average price of tool products will increase by 22% in the second quarter of 2025, but it is still difficult to cover the increase in tungsten carbide prices. Small and medium-sized manufacturers are even more embarrassed. About 30% of small and medium-sized tool enterprises in Europe have been forced to suspend receiving orders due to supply shortages or high costs.

In oil and gas extraction, tungsten carbide accounts for more than 40% of the drill bit cost. The increase in tungsten carbide prices directly increases the extraction cost of each shale oil well by $120,000 – $180,000. Devon Energy, an American shale oil producer, has postponed 5 shale well projects, stating bluntly that “the increase in drill bit costs has made some low-yield wells lose their economic value”. The mining industry is also under pressure. According to a report by BHP Billiton in Australia, the procurement cost of wear-resistant components for its iron ore mining has increased by 68% year-on-year, forcing some open-pit mines to slow down the mining pace.

A report disclosed by the U.S. Department of Defense in May 2025 shows that the U.S. Army’s armor-piercing bullet inventory can only meet the combat needs for 90 days, which is 40% less than expected. Military enterprises in many European countries have revealed that the artillery shell production capacity can only reach 35% of the demand, and the core bottleneck is the supply of tungsten carbide.

最前線の兵士たちはその影響を直接的に感じており、ウクライナ戦線の弾薬箱に入っている徹甲弾の数は約束された数より30%以上少ないことがしばしばあり、輸送船が港でタングステン合金の原材料の積み込みを待つのが常態化している。

ターミナル産業における連鎖反応が顕在化している。機械加工工場の工具調達コストは50%増加し、納期は2週間から2ヶ月に延長された。建設会社の掘削設備のメンテナンスコストは40%増加し、総額固定のインフラプロジェクトの一部ではすでに損失が発生している。この影響は生産側から消費側へと波及し、最終的には世界の工業製品全体の価格水準を押し上げる可能性がある。

この危機に直面して、世界の業界関係者はただ待っているのではなく、政策と市場推進要因の指導の下で多様な対応策を模索してきました。

各国は、単一の供給源への依存を減らすために、多様化したサプライチェーン戦略を導入しています。

米国防総省は2025年3月、韓国の山東鉱山地域の再開を支援するため、アルモンティ社と15年間の開発協定を締結した。また、5月には国防用酸化タングステン原料の供給を確保するため、ワイオミング州のタングステン部品工場と3年間の供給契約を締結した。

Although the Sandong Mine claimed to complete the construction and ship goods in August, the industry generally questioned its cost competitiveness – the mining cost of similar mines in China is only 60% of that of the Sandong Mine.

米国地質調査所は、12州で100カ所のタングステン採掘の可能性のある地域を特定しました。ネバダ州、アイダホ州などでは小規模プロジェクトが実現可能性調査の段階に入っており、ネバダ州は7月に国防総省から資金提供を受け、現地での採掘可能性の評価を加速させました。

Europe has adopted a “decentralized procurement” strategy. The European Commission launched the “Critical Raw Materials Alliance” plan, aiming to increase the proportion of tungsten supply from non-Chinese sources from the current 19% to 40% by 2030. Germany’s Bosch Group signed a long-term agreement with Portugal’s Almonty Corporation to exclusively sell all its output in the next five years; France’s Airbus cooperated with a Canadian exploration company to fund its tungsten exploration project in Quebec. However, the industry consensus is that it takes an average of 7 – 10 years for a new mine to go from exploration to stable production, which is difficult to ease the supply tension in the short term.

タングステンのリサイクル率は95%以上と高く、リサイクルされたタングステンの性能は一次タングステンとほぼ同じです。炭化タングステン価格の高騰を背景に、リサイクルの経済的価値が顕著になっています。データによると、リサイクルされた炭化タングステン粉末の世界市場規模は2024年に約$97百万ドルで、2031年には$139百万ドルに達すると予想されており、2025年から2031年までの年平均成長率は5.3%です。

Enterprises and governments have increased their investment in recycling. The U.S. Department of Defense launched the “Tungsten Recycling Incentive Program”, providing a subsidy of $2,000 per ton to recycling enterprises; Germany’s Volkswagen set up a dedicated recycling line in its electric vehicle factory to recycle tungsten carbide chips generated in battery processing; relying on a sound industrial chain, China has established a complete system from waste tool recycling, crushing, purification to remanufacturing.

The output of recycled tungsten in China is expected to exceed 10,000 tons in 2025, accounting for 15% of domestic consumption. The application of advanced recycling technology has further improved efficiency. The “low-temperature crushing – chemical purification” process developed by Sandvik in Sweden has shortened the recycling cycle from the traditional 7 days to 24 hours and increased the recycling rate to 98%.

メーカーは、性能確保を前提にタングステンカーバイドの消費量を削減するため、製品設計を次々と最適化してきました。サンドビックが発表した新世代の切削工具は、傾斜構造を採用し、表面のタングステンカーバイド含有量はそのままに、芯材を安価な合金に置き換えました。これにより、耐用年数はそのままに、材料消費量を20%削減しました。

生産プロセスの改善にも力を入れています。中国の炭化タングステン企業は、焼結パラメータを最適化することで、製品の歩留まりを85%から92%に向上させ、間接的に原材料の消費量を削減しました。

In some low-demand scenarios, the application proportion of ceramic tools and high-speed steel tools has increased; in the field of oil and gas drilling, enterprises have begun to test silicon carbide ceramics to replace some tungsten carbide components. However, the replacement in high-end fields is still difficult. For tools used in semiconductor wafer cutting, there is currently no material that can replace the precision and wear resistance of tungsten carbide. As the director of material R&D at Germany’s Bosch Group said: “Alternative materials can solve 10% of the problems, but 90% of the core needs still cannot do without tungsten carbide.”

Announcement No. 10 of 2025 issued by the Ministry of Commerce of China clearly states that applications for the export of civil tungsten products can usually be approved, avoiding the excessive impact of “one-size-fits-all” control on the industry. Enterprises have maintained rational production. The global tungsten-molybdenum production index in August 2025 fell by 8.5 percentage points compared with July, avoiding market chaos caused by blind capacity expansion.

2025年以降の市場を見据えて、業界ではタングステンカーバイドの価格は低コストの時代に別れを告げ、高水準の運用という新たな常態に入るというコンセンサスに達しています。

In the short term, extreme tungsten carbide price fluctuations may ease slightly, but the high-level trend is difficult to change. With the normalization of China’s export control policies and the initial release of U.S. domestic production capacity, market panic will gradually subside, and tungsten carbide prices may fall by 10% – 15% from the peak. However, the U.S. Geological Survey predicts that the global supply gap will still remain at about 12% in 2026, the core contradiction of supply-demand imbalance has not changed, and it is difficult for prices to return to the level before 2025.

長期的には、構造的な要因が価格の高水準安定を支えるだろう。供給面では、新規鉱山の稼働サイクルの長期化や環境保護コストの増加といった問題が長期にわたって続くだろう。一方、需要面では、電気自動車や再生可能エネルギーといった新興分野における需要の伸びは不可逆的である。

Analysts generally predict that from 2026 to 2030, the average tungsten carbide price will stabilize in the range of $450 – $500 per 10 kilograms, which is more than 50% higher than the 2024 level. This means that enterprises must completely adjust their cost structures and include high-priced tungsten carbide in their long-term budget planning.

A more far-reaching impact lies in the restructuring of the supply chain pattern. The old model of “production in China + global consumption” is being broken, and a new pattern of “led by China + multi-polar supplementary” will be formed in the future. The domestic production capacity in the United States, Europe, and other regions will gradually increase, but limited by resource endowments and costs, their share is difficult to exceed 20%. The improvement of the recycling system will become an important supplement. It is expected that the proportion of global recycled tungsten will reach 25% by 2030, becoming a “ballast stone” for stabilizing the market.

The sharp rise in tungsten carbide prices in 2025 is not only a market event but also a “wake-up call” for the global industrial sector. For enterprises that rely on tungsten carbide, the diversification of the supply chain cannot stay at the level of slogans but needs to be transformed into long-term resource layout; recycling should be upgraded from an auxiliary means to a core procurement channel; technological innovation should focus on the efficient use of materials and the breakthrough of alternative solutions.

This “great shortage” is both a crisis and an opportunity for transformation. It promotes the global industry to shift from “low-cost dependence” to “high-quality resilience”, and accelerates the development of the circular economy and the restructuring of the supply chain. As industry experts said: “The tungsten carbide price storm in 2025 will eventually pass, but the supply chain changes it leaves behind will last for ten years – resource security has become the ultimate competitive advantage in the modern industrial era.”